Sunday, February 20, 2011

Islamists caused overwhelming majority of terrorist deaths in Europe during last decade

This is the blog post that has taken me the longest to write. I went through every single terrorist attack in Europe and North America in the comprehensive RAND Database of Worldwide Terrorism Incidents for the last 10 years (close to 4000 incidents). Terrorists were divided between Muslims or non-Muslims. When RAND does not provide information on likely or confirmed perpetrators and we have no strong suspicions, I assume they were non-Muslim, to err on the side of caution.

Most of Islam is of course non-violent. Surveys show that less than 10-30% of Muslims are openly sympathetic to violence in the name of Islam. I am therefore not writing about Islam, I am writing about Islamism, a minority political sect within Islam.

Looking at all people killed by terrorist attacks in Europe and North America during the last 10 years, 97% was committed by Muslim terrorist, or 4703 of 4873 killed. Most of this is September 11 alone.

Still, even if we exclude the September 11 attacks, the share of casualties due to Muslim terror is 91%.

A lot of the remainder are a number of deadly (and under-reported by western media) Muslim terrorist attacks in Russia. If we just look at Western Europe, the share of terrorist deaths caused by Muslim terrorists during the last 10 years is 79%.

The remaining 68 deaths out of 319 were committed by The IRA and other domestic terrorist. By comparison, the Madrid attacks in 2004 alone killed three times as many people than all attacks by ETA, The IRA, Corsican separatists, right-wing terrorists and all other non-Muslim terrorist attacks in Europe during the last ten years combined.

Remember, I do not include any Islamists terrorist attacks in the Middle East or South Asia or Africa or anywhere else other than Europe and North America. Based on State Department Data and to unimaginable horror these attacks appear to have killed in excess of 10,000 people per year during the last decade.


Unlike Neo-cons, I do not believe that radical Islamism is a threat to our civilization the same way Nazism or Communism ever was. The reason is that militant Islamism is too disorganized.

Lack of organization makes it hard to eradicate militant Islamism, as is no center of power you can knock out to end the war. However it also means Islamists are unable to concentrate the force required to really threaten us. At worst, they can kill a few thousand innocent civilians, which is of course horrible, but hardly on the same civilization-threatening level as Nazis exterminating millions or Communists threatening to eradicate Europe with nukes.

Second, unlike Communism and Fascism, militant Islamism has little attraction as an ideology in the West. During the cold war communist sympathizers infiltrated governments and other key institutions in the United States and Western Europe. Communist American scientists stole U.S military technology and helped Stalin build nuclear weapons. The same will not happen with regards to radical Islam. Today there are very few American scientists who are True Believers (Useful Idiots) and likely to steal nuclear secrets and give them to Bin Laden.

However what does annoy me is when the elite uses statistics to manipulate the public.

In Sweden the public is currently worried about Islamic terror, after two recent incidents with Islamist terrorist. Once again the elites, (media, politician and academics) have ganged up against the public and are trying to downplay the terrorist threat from militant Islam.

You see, while ordinary citizens may have gotten the impression from the nightly news that adherents of militant Islamism are statistically overrepresented in terms of international terrorism, the Enlightened Classes know better. The real reason the poor fools in the public believe there is a link between militant Islam and international terrorism is "islamophobia".

There was a debate in the parliament recently. Both the Social Democrats and the other parties in the left claimed that the main terrorist threat to the Swedish public today is not radical Islam, but right wing extremism...

The Green party representative explained that terrorism "is about emotional and social aspects rather than ideological ones".

This is the left, but the right is not much better.

So how in god's name would you convince the public of the preposterous claim that militant Islam is not the main terrorist threat in Europe? Their method is interesting, both in showing ingenuity in finding ways to trick the public, and stupidity in what they are willing to convince themselves of. The solution is namely to rely on the number of terrorist attacks, rather than on casualties from terrorism!

In Spain and Northern Ireland in particular, there are lots of tiny terrorist attacks by domestic terrorists every year. These attacks typically don't kill anyone, and often don't appear aimed at killing anyone. Characteristic examples from the RAND database:

"The headquarters of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) in Baranain had several windows broken when it was attacked with stones. The damage is estimated at 50,000 pesetas."

"A group of radicals attacked a Renault dealership by setting a fire which damaged three vans belonging to the firm. A container of flammable liquids and firework rockets were used to start the fire."

Al-Qaida on the other hand specialized on a few spectacular attacks aimed at killing as many as possible.

Thus if we ignore the deaths and treat each attack as equal, you can show that Islamists commit a smaller number of terrorist acts than domestic terrorists. This method absurdly assumes that bringing down the Twin Towers on September 11 is equal to ETA vandalizing some property in Spain (each is one attack after all).

This is for instance what Sweden's largest daily DN does, using a report from Interpol about the number of terrorist incidences in Europe, and concluding that "Islamists terror attacks are unusual in Europe".

My calculations show that DN is misleading it's readers. As usual, when it comes to issues shrouded in political correctness, the public is better off relying on their own impression than "scientists" and "experts" in the media.

207 comments:

  1. DN's position seems to be a triumph of attitude over analysis.

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  2. Looking at smaller regions helps, however. To my knowledge there have never been Islamist terrorist attacks in the Republic of Ireland, so here the threat continues to come mainly from extreme nationalist groups.

    The annual Europol Terrorism Situation and Trend Report shows that Islamist terrorist attacks make up a tiny, tiny minority of all attacks in the EU. However the Islamists aim at mass-carnage, unlike the more restrained violence of nationalist separatist groups. They are fewer, their attacks are much less common, but their attacks kill many more than the nationalists, socialists, racists, etc.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A major flaw here is that "terrorism" is a contested term that there is little agreement on definition. It is in the labeling of violence "terrorism" that is anti-Muslim.
      Second flaw is that not all similar violent events are labeled "terrorism" by governments. It appears a violent event is treated as "terrorism" when the perpetrator turns out to have a Muslim background. The UK stabbing death of Drummer Rigby as "terrorism" and a "national security threat," while the stabbing death Mohammed Saleem is hardly "terrorism," in fact, Saleem's killer when on to bombing mosques.
      What is "terrorism" is labeled "terrorism" by governments - and it has an obvious anti-Muslim bias. Crimes that can be labeled "terrorism" when against Muslims are just "hate crimes."

      Delete
  3. The argument using Europol stats is sort of similar to say that 99.9% of all bombs are non-nuclear. So why worry?

    ReplyDelete
  4. There is no any religious, ethnicity, or language of terrorist. Terrorist always and everywhere should be only named as terrorist and nothing else. Killing innocent people can not be coupled with any religious or ethnicity, to humiliate the people holding that identity.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Re. the disorganization of Islamist groups relative to previous totalitarian menaces - A well organized group has another advantage, namely the ability to bestow increasing rewards on supporters. Ideological commitment accounts for some adherents and some acts, but having the capacity to reward actors for creatively following the leadership's goals induces deeper commitments and more acts furthering these goals. See Breton and Wintrobe (1982?) for a model of this.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Do you have any statistics on the numbers of terrorist attacks by Muslim and non-Muslims? I think it might be interesting to see those as well as the number of deaths.

    ReplyDelete
  7. I spent some time looking for this information a while ago and could not find it myself.

    This is a fantastic article. Thank you so much for your hard work.

    I had been aware of 18,000 world wide deaths in 2009 and 2010 but this number is even more upsetting.

    100,000 murders in 10 years is tantamount to genocide.

    ReplyDelete
  8. This may be true, but capitalists have killed hundreds of thousands in the same time period.

    But of course, that's not terrorism, is it...

    ReplyDelete
  9. "This may be true, but capitalists have killed hundreds of thousands in the same time period.

    But of course, that's not terrorism, is it... "

    And communism has killed more than 100 million...

    ReplyDelete
  10. "And communism has killed more than 100 million..."

    So that makes capitalism what? Better? Good?

    Arguing that something else is worse does not make the other standpoint good. They are both bad however you want to frame it.

    ReplyDelete
  11. If you are genuin intressted in stopping violence and terror blaming the on or other side for being more brutal and killing more people isn't the right way.
    I think if all humans would treat people who are diffrent with the same respect and dignity like them who are like themself we wouldn't have terrorism at all.


    "Because we all share this planet earth, we have to learn to live in harmony and peace with each other and with nature. This is not just a dream, but a necessity. " — Dalai Lama XIV

    ReplyDelete
  12. This is the latest info from Europol.

    https://www.europol.europa.eu/sites/default/files/publications/te-sat2011_0.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  13. nice blog about ( Islamists caused overwhelming majority of terrorist deaths in Europe during last decade ) electric train horns for cars like it and thank you for sharing it

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  14. Wonderful article, I was doing research for a project on violence and just stumbled across it. However, I couldn't stop reading it. I loved how you stated both sides of the argument and gave the benefit of the doubt to the side that did not support your argument.
    And to all you doubters saying that we should not stereotype or judge by ethnicity/religion here is some food for thought. When you are going to face an opponent you would want to learn as much about him as possible, no? So when we need to battle terrorism and the facts clearly state that 97% of deaths caused by terrorism are commited by extremest muslum groups one should take that into consideration so that he may better understand what he is up against.
    Even if you're a pacifist this is still applicable. For when studying our enemies we can't help but realize that they too are human and it gives us a sort of connection with them which will cause us to think twice about striking back too hard.

    ReplyDelete
  15. This is a fk-n beauteful post! The logic and facts are impeccable.

    U have to ask urself why logik and facts accounts to so little in Swedish media. The answer is of course, that freedom of speech dont really exist in Sweden. The "Politically correct" have monopoly on heavy media (TV, newspapers)and are censoring opponents on a constant basis. So logic and facts are hardly heard. Stupidity prevails! Just like in nazi-Germany during early 40:ies.

    We ask for only ONE thing: let truth and logic be heard!

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